Pakistan’s Water Vulnerability and the Risk of Inter-State Conflict in South Asia

Rabia Aslam

Abstract

The paper addresses the issue of water scarcity and water vulnerability 
in Pakistan. It appears that wasteful agricultural practices; the dam centered internal politics and the recent construction of dams by the Indian government on the shared rivers has caused concern amongst certain quarters and created fears in some sections of society in Pakistan that India could redirect some of the water which rightfully belongs to Pakistan under the Indus Basin Treaty. If this indeed happens there could be serious water shortages in parts of down stream Pakistan. A game theoretic analysis of the situation suggests that, given the nature of induced water stress, the law of unlimited territorial sovereignty, if implemented in this case, could result in a Nash equilibrium of bilateral aggression for these nuclear neighbors. Institutional mechanisms therefore have to be put into place for monitoring river flows on both sides of the border and information sharing as stipulated under the Indus Basin Treaty 
to prevent tensions and develop a cooperative approach to the problem of 
growing water scarcity related with climate change.